Cruzeiro EC v 
Botafogo FR
The model’s call
Cruzeiro win 46%
Draw 23%
Botafogo win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.4
Both teams to score 60%
The read
Our model gives Cruzeiro EC a slight edge at home, forecasting a 44% win probability compared to Botafogo FR's 33%, with a 23% draw chance. The hosts' home advantage is reflected in the expected goals tally (1.6 to 1.4), though the margin is narrow. However, the model's most likely outcome is actually a 1-1 draw, suggesting a competitive encounter where neither side is heavily favoured to dominate.