RB Bragantino v 
Coritiba FBC
The model’s call
Bragantino win 50%
Draw 22%
Coritiba win 28%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.5–0.9
Both teams to score 45%
The read
Our model gives RB Bragantino a 45% chance of victory at home against Coritiba FBC, though this remains a competitive matchup. Bragantino's home advantage and expected goal advantage (1.3 to 0.9) underpin the marginal favouritism, but Coritiba's 29% win probability reflects their capacity to trouble the hosts. The most likely scoreline of 1-0 suggests a tight contest where a single goal may prove decisive.