CA Paranaense v 
SC Internacional
The model’s call
Paranaense win 54%
Draw 20%
Internacional win 25%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–0.7
Both teams to score 38%
The read
Our model favours CA Paranaense at home with a 48% win probability, compared to 26% each for draw and away victory. The hosts' advantage is built on home-ground support and a superior expected goals figure of 1.2 to SC Internacional's 0.8, suggesting they should create more clear-cut chances. While Paranaense are the clear favourites, the narrow gap to a potential draw reflects the competitive nature of Brasileirão football.