EC Vitória v 
CR Vasco da Gama
The model’s call
Vitória win 51%
Draw 21%
Vasco da Gama win 28%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.1
Both teams to score 54%
The read
Our model slightly favours EC Vitória at home, assigning them a 51% win probability compared to 27% for CR Vasco da Gama. The home advantage appears decisive in a relatively balanced matchup, with Vitória's expected goals (1.6) edging Vasco's (1.1). However, with a draw at 23% and the most likely scoreline being 1-1, this is a tight contest where all three outcomes remain genuinely competitive.