Mirassol FC v 
Grêmio FBPA
The model’s call
Mirassol win 45%
Draw 24%
Grêmio win 31%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.1–0.9
Both teams to score 39%
The read
Our model gives Mirassol FC a slight edge at home with a 42% win probability against Grêmio FBPA, though this remains a competitive fixture. The hosts' home advantage and expected goals metric (1.1 to 0.9) support the favourites tag, but Grêmio's 30% away win probability reflects their capability to produce an upset. The model's most likely outcome is a narrow 1-0 home victory, though draws are also significant at 28% probability.