SC Internacional v 
Cruzeiro EC
The model’s call
Internacional win 43%
Draw 25%
Cruzeiro win 32%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.3–0.9
Both teams to score 44%
The read
Our model slightly favours SC Internacional at home, assigning them a 45% win probability compared to Cruzeiro EC's 28%, with a 27% chance of a draw. Internacional's home advantage appears decisive here, though the match remains competitive—the expected goals (1.3 to 0.9) suggest a low-scoring affair where set pieces and defensive discipline could prove key. Cruzeiro will need to weather the opening period and capitalise on any defensive lapses.