Coritiba FBC v 
SE Palmeiras
The model’s call
Coritiba win 28%
Draw 23%
Palmeiras win 49%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.8–1.4
Both teams to score 40%
The read
SE Palmeiras are favoured away at Coritiba FBC, with our model giving the visitors a 44% chance of victory compared to 29% for the hosts. Palmeiras' superior underlying metrics—reflected in their 1.2 expected goals against Coritiba's 0.9—suggest a quality differential that typically translates to away advantage despite the home venue. The model's most likely outcome is a 0-1 away win, though a draw (27%) remains plausible in what shapes as a competitive fixture.