CA Mineiro v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Mineiro win 46%
Draw 23%
Bahia win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.5–1.3
Both teams to score 55%
The read
Our model gives CA Mineiro a modest 44% chance of victory at home against EC Bahia, making them the slight favourites in this Brasileirão fixture. The home-field advantage appears marginal here, with expected goals suggesting a closely contested match (1.5 for CA Mineiro, 1.3 for EC Bahia). The most likely outcome according to the model is actually a 1-1 draw, reflecting the relatively even quality between the sides and the competitive nature of the matchup.