CR Vasco da Gama v 
CA Mineiro
The model’s call
Vasco da Gama win 40%
Draw 26%
Mineiro win 34%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.4–1.3
Both teams to score 54%
The read
Our model gives CR Vasco da Gama a slight edge at home with a 40% win probability, though this is a relatively tight contest. The home advantage and current form push Vasco ahead of CA Mineiro's 34% win chances, but the expected goals (1.4 vs 1.3) suggest a closely matched pair. A draw at 26% is a realistic outcome given the narrow margin between the sides.
Full time
Vasco da Gama 0–1 Mineiro
The model picked a vasco da gama win — it didn't call this one.