Santos FC v 
EC Vitória
The model’s call
Santos win 41%
Draw 26%
Vitória win 34%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.5–1.3
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Santos FC are favoured at home in this competitive Brasileirão clash, with our model giving them a 41% win probability compared to Vitória's 34%. The hosts edge it through home advantage and slightly superior expected output (1.5 xG vs 1.3), though the probabilities suggest this is a closely matched encounter. A draw at 26% underscores the tightness of the fixture, with the most likely scoreline pointing to 1-1.
Full time
Santos 3–1 Vitória
The model picked a santos win — it called this one right.