SE Palmeiras v 
Chapecoense AF
The model’s call
Palmeiras win 82%
Draw 10%
Chapecoense win 8%
Likely score 2–0
Expected goals 2.7–0.5
Both teams to score 39%
The read
Our model strongly favours SE Palmeiras in this Brasileirão clash, assigning them an 82% chance of victory. The home advantage at their ground, combined with Palmeiras' superior form and attacking prowess, drives this confident prediction. With an expected goals difference of 2.0 in Palmeiras' favour, the model's most likely outcome is a 2-0 home win, though Chapecoense AF will hope to frustrate and steal something from the trip.
Full time
Palmeiras 1–0 Chapecoense
The model picked a palmeiras win — it called this one right.