Grêmio FBPA v 
SC Corinthians Paulista
The model’s call
Grêmio win 36%
Draw 32%
Corinthians win 32%
Likely score 0–0
Expected goals 0.8–0.8
Both teams to score 30%
The read
Our model gives Grêmio FBPA a slight edge at home with a 36% win probability, though this is a relatively balanced encounter. The fixture is genuinely competitive, with draws and away wins each at 32%, and the expected goals figures (0.8 per side) suggest a low-scoring affair. Grêmio's home advantage provides the marginal preference, but this matchup has all the hallmarks of a closely-fought Brasileirão contest.
Full time
Grêmio 1–3 Corinthians
The model picked a grêmio win — it didn't call this one.