CR Flamengo v 
Coritiba FBC
The model’s call
Flamengo win 59%
Draw 20%
Coritiba win 20%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.8–0.8
Both teams to score 47%
The read
Our model favours CR Flamengo to take all three points at home, assigning them a 62% win probability against Coritiba FBC. The home advantage at Estádio do Flamengo is a key factor, combined with the expected goal distribution—Flamengo's 1.8 xG versus Coritiba's 0.8 suggests the hosts should control the match and create clearer chances. The most likely scoreline of 1-0 reflects a competitive but controlled home performance.
Full time
Flamengo 3–0 Coritiba
The model picked a flamengo win — it called this one right.