Cruzeiro EC v 
Fluminense FC
The model’s call
Cruzeiro win 41%
Draw 25%
Fluminense win 34%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.4–1.3
Both teams to score 54%
The read
Our model backs Cruzeiro EC as slight favourites at home despite a closely contested matchup, assigning them a 41% win probability compared to Fluminense FC's 34%. The hosts benefit from home advantage in what the model expects to be a tight affair, with expected goals of 1.2 apiece suggesting both sides will create similar attacking opportunities. However, the 25% draw probability and most likely scoreline of 1-1 underline just how competitive this Brasileirão encounter is expected to be.
Full time
Cruzeiro 1–1 Fluminense
The model picked a cruzeiro win — it didn't call this one.