EC Bahia v 
Botafogo FR
The model’s call
Bahia win 45%
Draw 23%
Botafogo win 32%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 2.0–1.6
Both teams to score 69%
The read
Our model favours EC Bahia at home with a 45% win probability against Botafogo FR, though a draw (23%) remains competitive. The hosts benefit from home advantage and are expected to create slightly more chances (2.0 xG vs 1.6), but Botafogo's away form keeps this fixture tight—the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting balanced attacking threat from both sides.
Full time
Bahia 2–1 Botafogo
The model picked a bahia win — it called this one right.