CA Paranaense v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Paranaense win 52%
Draw 25%
Mirassol win 24%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.3–0.8
Both teams to score 39%
The read
Our model gives CA Paranaense a narrow edge over Mirassol FC, rating the home side as favourites with a 51% win probability. Paranaense's advantage stems from home-ground support and slightly superior attacking threat, reflected in expected goals of 1.3 to 0.8. However, the 25% draw probability and Mirassol's 24% upset chance underscore how competitive this Brasileirão encounter should be.
Full time
Paranaense 1–0 Mirassol
The model picked a paranaense win — it called this one right.