Paris Saint-Germain FC v 
Arsenal FC
The model’s call
PSG win 38%
Draw 26%
Arsenal win 35%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.2–1.2
Both teams to score 49%
The read
Our model rates Paris Saint-Germain as slight favourites against Arsenal in this Champions League encounter, with a 41% win probability compared to Arsenal's 34%. The home advantage at the Parc des Princes gives PSG an edge, though the match is closely matched—expected goals sit level at 1.2 each, suggesting a competitive affair. The model's most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting how tightly these two sides appear to be aligned.
Full time
PSG 5–4 Arsenal
The model picked a psg win — it called this one right.