Valencia CF v 
FC Barcelona
The model’s call
Valencia win 17%
Draw 16%
Barça win 67%
Likely score 0–2
Expected goals 1.0–2.3
Both teams to score 57%
The read
Barcelona are strong favourites in this encounter, with our model giving them a 68% chance of victory. Valencia's underlying metrics are significantly weaker, reflected in an expected goals range of 0.9–2.3 in Barcelona's favour. The visitors' superior form and quality should prove decisive despite playing away from home.
Full time
Valencia 3–1 Barça
The model picked a barça win — it didn't call this one.