Real Madrid CF v 
Athletic Club
The model’s call
Real Madrid win 77%
Draw 12%
Athletic win 10%
Likely score 2–0
Expected goals 2.5–0.7
Both teams to score 47%
The read
Our model heavily favours Real Madrid CF to secure victory at home, assigning them a 77% win probability against Athletic Club. The hosts' advantage stems from strong recent form and home-ground superiority, with expected goals of 2.5 suggesting they should control the match and create clear openings. Athletic Club's expected goals of just 0.7 reflects the difficulty they'll face breaking down a well-drilled Madrid defence, making a comfortable home win the model's most likely outcome.
Full time
Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic
The model picked a real madrid win — it called this one right.