Getafe CF v 
CA Osasuna
The model’s call
Getafe win 42%
Draw 29%
Osasuna win 29%
Likely score 0–0
Expected goals 0.9–0.8
Both teams to score 31%
The read
Our model favours Getafe CF at home with a 42% probability, though the prediction is relatively close with Osasuna's away win at 29%. The home advantage and Getafe's slightly stronger underlying performance (0.9 expected goals versus 0.8) support the pick, but a draw is a realistic outcome at 29% probability. This looks like a tightly-contested match where a low-scoring result is most likely.
Full time
Getafe 1–0 Osasuna
The model picked a getafe win — it called this one right.