RC Celta de Vigo v 
Sevilla FC
The model’s call
Celta win 55%
Draw 21%
Sevilla FC win 24%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.8–1.0
Both teams to score 53%
The read
Our model favours RC Celta de Vigo to take three points at home, assigning them a 55% win probability compared to Sevilla FC's 24%. The home advantage and Celta's attacking prowess—reflected in an expected goals figure of 1.8—form the backbone of this prediction, though the model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 suggests this could be a tightly contested encounter. Sevilla's defensive solidity (1.0 xG conceded) means a narrow victory rather than a comfortable one is the realistic expectation for the hosts.
Full time
Celta 1–0 Sevilla FC
The model picked a celta win — it called this one right.