Deportivo Alavés v 
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
The model’s call
Alavés win 38%
Draw 29%
Rayo Vallecano win 33%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.1–1.0
Both teams to score 40%
The read
Our model favours Deportivo Alavés to edge this tight contest, giving them a 39% chance of victory compared to Rayo Vallecano's 33%, with a 29% probability of a draw. The home advantage appears decisive here, though the narrow margins reflect how competitive this matchup is. Expected goals of 1.1 to 1.0 suggest a low-scoring affair, with the model's most likely outcome a slender 1-0 home victory.
Full time
Alavés 1–2 Rayo Vallecano
The model picked a alavés win — it didn't call this one.