Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

The read

Deportivo Alavés edges this encounter according to our model, with a 39% home-win probability favoring the hosts over Rayo Vallecano de Madrid's 33% chance of victory. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair (1.1 expected goals for Alavés, 1.0 for Rayo), reflecting relatively balanced attacking threat but giving slight weight to home advantage and form. However, with nearly a third of the probability mass on a draw, this shapes up as a closely-fought fixture where any result remains plausible.