Sevilla FC v 
Real Madrid CF
The model’s call
Sevilla FC win 20%
Draw 18%
Real Madrid win 61%
Likely score 1–2
Expected goals 1.1–2.1
Both teams to score 58%
The read
Our model heavily favours Real Madrid CF in this fixture, with a 61% probability of an away win. Despite Sevilla FC's home advantage, Madrid's superior form and goal-scoring threat—reflected in expected goals of 2.1 versus 1.1—position them as clear favourites. The model's most likely outcome is a 1-2 scoreline in Madrid's favour, suggesting they should control possession and create the better chances.
Full time
Sevilla FC 0–1 Real Madrid
The model picked a real madrid win — it called this one right.