CA Osasuna v 
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
The model’s call
Osasuna win 50%
Draw 24%
Espanyol win 26%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–0.9
Both teams to score 45%
The read
Our model gives CA Osasuna a slight edge in this La Liga encounter, with a 50% probability of a home victory. The hosts' advantage is built on their home-ground support and a marginal expected goals advantage (1.4 to 0.9), suggesting they should create more clear opportunities. However, the relatively close probabilities for a draw (24%) and RCD Espanyol de Barcelona's away win (26%) reflect this as a competitive match with limited separation between the sides.
Full time
Osasuna 1–2 Espanyol
The model picked a osasuna win — it didn't call this one.