Real Oviedo v 
Deportivo Alavés
The model’s call
Real Oviedo win 31%
Draw 30%
Alavés win 40%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.9–1.1
Both teams to score 39%
The read
Our model favours Deportivo Alavés despite playing away, giving them a 40% win probability compared to Real Oviedo's 31%. The model expects a tight, low-scoring encounter with expected goals between 0.9 and 1.1, suggesting both sides will create limited chances. Alavés' edge likely reflects their current form and defensive solidity, though the 29% draw probability underscores how competitive this fixture should be.
Full time
Real Oviedo 0–1 Alavés
The model picked a alavés win — it called this one right.