Real Sociedad de Fútbol v 
Valencia CF
The model’s call
Real Sociedad win 51%
Draw 23%
Valencia win 26%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.7–1.0
Both teams to score 53%
The read
Our model gives Real Sociedad de Fútbol a slight edge in this La Liga clash, backing the hosts to win with 51% probability. The Basque side's home advantage and expected goals advantage of 1.7 to 1.1 support their favoured status, though the probabilities remain competitive—a draw (23%) or Valencia CF win (26%) remain entirely plausible outcomes. Despite the model's preference for a Real Sociedad victory, the most likely scoreline projects as a 1-1 draw, highlighting the match's closeness.
Full time
Real Sociedad 3–4 Valencia
The model picked a real sociedad win — it didn't call this one.