Rayo Vallecano de Madrid v 
Villarreal CF
The model’s call
Rayo Vallecano win 36%
Draw 28%
Villarreal win 37%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.1–1.2
Both teams to score 47%
The read
This fixture is a statistical toss-up, with our model giving Villarreal CF a marginal edge at 37% to win, compared to Rayo Vallecano de Madrid's 36%. The model's most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw (27% probability), reflecting the tight nature of the matchup. Expected goals of 1.1–1.2 per side suggest a low-scoring, closely contested encounter where fine margins will decide the result.
Full time
Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Villarreal
The model picked a villarreal win — it didn't call this one.