Elche CF v 
Getafe CF
The model’s call
Elche win 39%
Draw 30%
Getafe win 31%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.1–0.8
Both teams to score 37%
The read
Our model gives Elche CF a narrow edge at home with a 39% win probability, though this remains a competitive matchup with Getafe CF well-placed at 31%. The underlying expected goals favour Elche slightly (1.1 to 0.8), suggesting modest attacking threat on both sides. Home advantage appears to be the deciding factor here, though the high draw probability (30%) reflects how tight this fixture is expected to be.
Full time
Elche 1–0 Getafe
The model picked a elche win — it called this one right.