Athletic Club v 
RC Celta de Vigo
The model’s call
Athletic win 33%
Draw 27%
Celta win 39%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.1–1.3
Both teams to score 50%
The read
RC Celta de Vigo edges this encounter according to our model, which gives the visitors a 39% chance of victory compared to Athletic Club's 33%, with a 27% probability of a draw. Celta's away form and expected goal advantage (1.3 xG versus Athletic's 1.1) underpin their slight edge, though the most likely outcome remains a 1-1 stalemate, reflecting how competitive this matchup is likely to be.
Full time
Athletic 1–1 Celta
The model picked a celta win — it didn't call this one.