Lille OSC v 
AJ Auxerre
The model’s call
Lille win 66%
Draw 19%
Auxerre win 15%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.7–0.6
Both teams to score 38%
The read
Our model strongly favours Lille OSC at home, rating them 66% to win against AJ Auxerre. The hosts' advantage comes from home-ground benefit and superior expected goals output—Lille's model xG of 1.7 compared to Auxerre's 0.6 suggests a clear quality gap in chance creation. The most likely outcome is a narrow 1-0 victory, though draws remain possible at 19%.
Full time
Lille 0–2 Auxerre
The model picked a lille win — it didn't call this one.