Olympique de Marseille v 
Stade Rennais FC 1901
The model’s call
Marseille win 42%
Draw 23%
Stade Rennais win 35%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.9–1.5
Both teams to score 67%
The read
Olympique de Marseille enter this fixture as slight favourites despite relatively tight probabilities. Our model gives the hosts a 42% chance of victory, with home advantage and recent form appearing to be key factors in their edge over Stade Rennais FC 1901. Expected goals suggest a competitive match (1.9-1.6), though the most likely outcome the model projects is a 1-1 draw, indicating this could be a closely contested affair.
Full time
Marseille 3–1 Stade Rennais
The model picked a marseille win — it called this one right.