OGC Nice v 
FC Metz
The model’s call
Nice win 61%
Draw 18%
FC Metz win 21%
Likely score 2–1
Expected goals 2.0–1.1
Both teams to score 58%
The read
Our model favours OGC Nice to take all three points, with a 61% home win probability against FC Metz. The hosts benefit from home advantage and stronger underlying metrics, with an expected goals advantage of 2.0 to 1.1 in their favour. However, Metz remain competitive enough to trouble Nice, making a 2-1 home victory the most probable outcome.
Full time
Nice 0–0 FC Metz
The model picked a nice win — it didn't call this one.