FC Lorient v 
Le Havre AC
The model’s call
Lorient win 57%
Draw 22%
Le Havre win 22%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.5–0.8
Both teams to score 44%
The read
Our model favours FC Lorient to take three points against Le Havre AC, assigning them a 57% win probability. The home advantage appears decisive here, with Lorient's expected goals of 1.5 significantly outpacing their visitors' 0.8 – suggesting the model expects the hosts to control possession and create the better chances. A 1-0 victory is the most likely scoreline, though Le Havre's 22% win probability indicates they remain capable of an upset.
Full time
Lorient 0–2 Le Havre
The model picked a lorient win — it didn't call this one.