Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 
Hamburger SV
The model’s call
Leverkusen win 67%
Draw 16%
HSV win 17%
Likely score 2–1
Expected goals 2.3–1.0
Both teams to score 58%
The read
Our model favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen to take all three points, assigning them a 67% win probability at home against Hamburger SV. The hosts enjoy a significant advantage in underlying metrics, with an expected goals count of 2.3 compared to Hamburger's 1.0, reflecting their superior attacking threat and defensive solidity. Home advantage, combined with Leverkusen's attacking prowess, makes them the clear favourites in what the model rates as a likely 2-1 victory.
Full time
Leverkusen 1–1 HSV
The model picked a leverkusen win — it didn't call this one.