FC Bayern München v 
1. FC Köln
The model’s call
Bayern win 92%
Draw 4%
1. FC Köln win 4%
Likely score 4–1
Expected goals 4.7–1.1
Both teams to score 65%
The read
Our model heavily favours FC Bayern München at home, predicting a 92% chance of victory. Bayern's dominant home record and superior attacking threat—reflected in an expected goals differential of 3.6—underpin this strong conviction. 1. FC Köln face a significant challenge against the Bundesliga's elite, with the model's most likely scoreline suggesting Bayern's class will tell emphatically.
Full time
Bayern 5–1 1. FC Köln
The model picked a bayern win — it called this one right.