1. FC Union Berlin v 
FC Augsburg
The model’s call
Union Berlin win 39%
Draw 25%
Augsburg win 37%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.5
Both teams to score 63%
The read
Our model rates 1. FC Union Berlin as slight favourites at home with a 39% win probability, though this is a competitive fixture with FC Augsburg's away win chance at 37%. The expected goals projection of 1.6-1.5 suggests a closely contested match, with the model's most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw. Union's home advantage and recent form give them a marginal edge, but Augsburg remain well-positioned to take a result from Berlin.
Full time
Union Berlin 4–0 Augsburg
The model picked a union berlin win — it called this one right.