SC Freiburg v 
RB Leipzig
The model’s call
Freiburg win 28%
Draw 21%
RB Leipzig win 51%
Likely score 1–2
Expected goals 1.5–2.1
Both teams to score 67%
The read
Our model backs RB Leipzig to come away with the victory at the Schwarzwald-Stadion, giving the visitors a 51% win probability compared to Freiburg's 28%. Leipzig's superior form and attacking quality shine through in the expected goals metric, with the away side projected to create 2.1 chances versus Freiburg's 1.5. The hosts will need to be clinical on home soil to overturn the odds, but Leipzig enter as clear favourites in this encounter.
Full time
Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig
The model picked a rb leipzig win — it didn't call this one.