1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs 
1. FSV Mainz 05
Most likely scoreline 1–1 · Expected goals 1.6–1.7
The read
Our model gives 1. FSV Mainz 05 a slight edge in this fixture, forecasting a 40% chance of an away victory compared to 36% for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 at home. The model predicts a tightly contested match with expected goals around 1.6–1.7 for each side, and interestingly, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. Despite home advantage typically favouring Heidenheim, Mainz's underlying metrics push them marginally ahead in this encounter.
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