1. FC Heidenheim 1846 v 
1. FSV Mainz 05
The model’s call
Heidenheim win 36%
Draw 25%
Mainz win 40%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.7
Both teams to score 64%
The read
Our model gives 1. FSV Mainz 05 a slight edge in this Bundesliga encounter, with a 40% win probability compared to 1. FC Heidenheim 1846's 36%. The expected goals suggest a tight, competitive match at around 1.6-1.7 per side, with the model's most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw. Mainz's away-win favouritism reflects their current form and underlying quality, though the slim margins indicate this could easily go either way on the day.
Full time
Heidenheim 0–2 Mainz
The model picked a mainz win — it called this one right.