SV Werder Bremen v 
Borussia Dortmund
The model’s call
Bremen win 20%
Draw 18%
Dortmund win 63%
Likely score 1–2
Expected goals 1.1–2.3
Both teams to score 61%
The read
Our model expects a commanding away performance from Borussia Dortmund, assigning them a 63% probability of victory at Werder Bremen. Dortmund's superior attacking threat is reflected in expected goals of 2.3 compared to Bremen's 1.1, suggesting they should control the match and create the clearer chances. The most likely scoreline of 1-2 reflects Bremen's home-ground resilience against a considerably favoured opponent, but the model sees the visitors' quality as the decisive factor.
Full time
Bremen 0–2 Dortmund
The model picked a dortmund win — it called this one right.