West Ham United FC v 
Leeds United FC
The model’s call
West Ham win 34%
Draw 25%
Leeds United win 40%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.3–1.4
Both teams to score 56%
The read
Our model gives Leeds United a narrow edge in this competitive encounter at the London Stadium, with a 38% probability of an away victory compared to West Ham's 36%. The expected goals suggest an evenly-matched contest (1.4 each), with a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome. This is a tight call between two sides with similar attacking threat, though Leeds' form and set-piece efficiency edge them slightly ahead despite West Ham's home advantage.
Full time
West Ham 3–0 Leeds United
The model picked a leeds united win — it didn't call this one.