Tottenham Hotspur FC v 
Everton FC
The model’s call
Tottenham win 43%
Draw 25%
Everton win 32%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.5–1.2
Both teams to score 55%
The read
Our model gives Tottenham Hotspur a slight edge at home with a 41% win probability, though Everton's 32% chance of an away victory suggests this will be competitive. The narrow expected goals differential (1.5 to 1.2) indicates both sides should create meaningful chances, with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw at 26% probability. Tottenham's home advantage and recent form appear to be the key factors in their marginal favoring.
Full time
Tottenham 1–0 Everton
The model picked a tottenham win — it called this one right.