Nottingham Forest FC v 
AFC Bournemouth
The model’s call
Nottingham win 39%
Draw 26%
Bournemouth win 35%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.4–1.3
Both teams to score 55%
The read
Our model leans slightly towards Nottingham Forest FC in this competitive encounter, giving the hosts a 40% win probability compared to AFC Bournemouth's 34% chance of victory. Forest's home advantage and recent form appear to be the decisive factors, though the relatively tight margins suggest this is a closely matched fixture. The expected goals differential (1.4 to 1.3) reflects a closely contested match, with the model actually forecasting a draw as the most likely scoreline.
Full time
Nottingham 1–1 Bournemouth
The model picked a nottingham win — it didn't call this one.