Fulham FC v 
Newcastle United FC
The model’s call
Fulham win 36%
Draw 26%
Newcastle win 37%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.4–1.4
Both teams to score 57%
The read
Our model rates this as an extremely tight encounter, with Fulham FC given a marginal 38% chance of victory at home compared to Newcastle United FC's 37% away win probability. The fixture appears evenly matched across expected metrics, with both sides projected for 1.4 expected goals each—the model's most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw. The home advantage provides Fulham with the narrowest of edges, though this is genuinely a coin-flip fixture where any result remains highly plausible.
Full time
Fulham 2–0 Newcastle
The model picked a newcastle win — it didn't call this one.