Crystal Palace FC v 
Arsenal FC
The model’s call
Crystal Palace win 14%
Draw 19%
Arsenal win 66%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.5–1.6
Both teams to score 33%
The read
Our model heavily favours Arsenal FC in this fixture, giving them a 67% win probability against Crystal Palace FC at home. Arsenal's superior form and attacking prowess are reflected in the expected goals range of 0.5-1.6, with the most likely scoreline a narrow 0-1 away victory. Crystal Palace face an uphill challenge here, with the model rating their chances of taking three points at just 14%.
Full time
Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal
The model picked a arsenal win — it called this one right.