Sunderland AFC v 
Chelsea FC
The model’s call
Sunderland win 39%
Draw 25%
Chelsea win 35%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.2–1.3
Both teams to score 51%
The read
Our model rates this fixture as highly competitive, with Sunderland AFC and Chelsea FC essentially evenly matched. The home side edges the prediction at 37% to 37%, reflecting Sunderland's advantage from playing at the Stadium of Light, though the 26% draw probability suggests a tight contest is just as plausible. Expected goals of 1.2–1.3 per side point to a cagey affair, with the most likely scoreline a 1-1 draw.
Full time
Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea
The model picked a sunderland win — it called this one right.