Newcastle United FC v 
West Ham United FC
The model’s call
Newcastle win 62%
Draw 18%
West Ham win 20%
Likely score 2–1
Expected goals 2.2–1.1
Both teams to score 58%
The read
Our model backs Newcastle United as clear favourites in this encounter, assigning them a 62% win probability compared to West Ham's 20%. Newcastle's home advantage and superior recent form drive the prediction, with an expected goals tally of 2.2 versus West Ham's 1.1 suggesting the hosts should create more attacking opportunities. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 reflects a competitive match where Newcastle's quality edges through, though West Ham's away threat means a draw (18%) remains plausible.
Full time
Newcastle 3–1 West Ham
The model picked a newcastle win — it called this one right.