Leeds United FC v 
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
The model’s call
Leeds United win 36%
Draw 26%
Brighton Hove win 37%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.2–1.3
Both teams to score 52%
The read
Brighton & Hove Albion FC are marginal favourites at Elland Road, with our model giving them a 37% chance of victory compared to Leeds United FC's 36%. The probabilities are tightly bunched, reflecting an evenly-matched contest. However, Brighton's slight edge comes through in expected goals (1.3 vs 1.2), suggesting they may create fractionally better chances despite playing away from home. The model's base case is a draw at 1-1, which hints at a competitive, closely-fought affair.
Full time
Leeds United 1–0 Brighton Hove
The model picked a brighton hove win — it didn't call this one.