Everton FC v Sunderland AFC

The read

Everton FC are narrowly favoured at home against Sunderland AFC, with our model giving them a 51% chance of victory. The Toffees' home advantage and expected goal differential (1.3 to 0.8) provide the edge, though this is a relatively tight prediction with a quarter of the probability mass on both a draw and an away win. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 Everton victory, but Sunderland have a genuine chance of getting a result away from home.