Chelsea FC v 
Tottenham Hotspur FC
The model’s call
Chelsea win 49%
Draw 22%
Tottenham win 29%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.9–1.3
Both teams to score 63%
The read
Our model gives Chelsea FC a slight edge in this West London derby, with a 49% home-win probability compared to Tottenham Hotspur's 29%. The hosts benefit from home advantage and are favoured in expected goals (1.9 vs 1.3), suggesting they should create more clear-cut opportunities. However, the model's most likely outcome is actually a 1-1 draw, reflecting Tottenham's quality as a visiting side and the unpredictability that characterizes this fixture.
Full time
Chelsea 2–1 Tottenham
The model picked a chelsea win — it called this one right.