Brentford FC v 
Crystal Palace FC
The model’s call
Brentford win 53%
Draw 23%
Crystal Palace win 24%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.5–0.9
Both teams to score 46%
The read
Our model favors Brentford FC at home, giving them a 53% chance of victory against Crystal Palace. The Bees' advantage stems from home-ground support and a stronger expected goals output (1.5 vs 0.9), though Palace's away form keeps this competitive. A narrow 1-0 home win emerges as the most probable scoreline, but with a draw at 23%, this remains far from a foregone conclusion.
Full time
Brentford 2–2 Crystal Palace
The model picked a brentford win — it didn't call this one.